The cannabis hype is about to come face-to-face with reality. After Canada legalizes recreational marijuana on Oct. 17, it will only take a quarter or two for clear winners and losers to emerge, according to investors and analysts who follow the sector. There may only be half a dozen major players left three years after legalization. The rest “are going to be bankrupt or out of business because their business models don’t work,” Eric Paul, from Ontario-based CannTrust, said. “This industry is far more brutal than most people understand.” So what will distinguish winners from losers? A meaningful presence in Canada’s recreational market combined with exposure to the international medical market is one key factor.